What little hope remains for reviving the Cypriot peace deal left unfinished last summer hangs on Sunday’s Greek Cypriot presidential election.
The three front-runners all say they want to resume talks on reunifying the island, which has been split since 1974 between the internationally recognized Greek side and the unrecognized Turkish side. Their enthusiasm and the terms under which they’d accept a deal, however, vary widely.
The incumbent, Nicos Anastasiades of the center-right Democratic Rally, looks likely to be one of two candidates to make it through Sunday’s first round to a runoff on February 4. He led last summer’s talks, and rejects accusations that he fumbled the country’s best chance for reunification, saying he’ll pick up the stalled discussions where they left off.
“Let us not cultivate a climate that we lost a chance, we haven’t lost any chance,” he said in a debate this week, according to the Cyprus Mail.
“I think what stands really against a viable solution in Cyprus has a name: It’s Turkey and the ruler, [President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan” — Costas Mavrides MEP
The center-left Progressive Party of Working People’s candidate, Stavros Malas, is the most eager to wrap up the existing deal. Nikolas Papadopoulos of the conservative, populist Democratic Party takes a much harder line, saying he would withdraw Anastasiades’ proposals and demand that Turkey immediately pull its troops from the Turkish Cypriot side and renounce its influence, rather than the phase-down Turkish Cypriots demand.
According to a poll this week, Anastasiades is expected to win 42 percent of the vote on Sunday, helped by his record in presiding over the country’s economic recovery. Malas was in second place with 25 percent, with Papadopoulos on 22 percent.
But Malas is struggling with the legacy of the economic crisis, as his Progressive Party is still blamed for causing the financial meltdown when it was in government.
“The support for Malas is clearly because of his position on the Cyprus talks — also from people from the right wing, because they don’t trust Anastasiades,” said Progressive Party MEP Neoklis Sylikiotis.
Possible shift
That leaves an opening for Papadopoulos, and if he makes it into the second round, the tone of the debate on resuming talks could shift.
A vote for Papadopoulos would signal resistance to the two-state federation that negotiators have long pursued. Papadopoulos’ father, Tassos, was president during Cyprus’ first referendum on reunification in 2004, and successfully campaigned against the United Nations-led deal.
“The security issue has to be resolved in a way that there are no foreign troops, no guarantees from third countries — the only and best guarantor for a lasting solution should be the EU,” said MEP Costas Mavrides, from Papadopoulos’ party. “I think what stands really against a viable solution in Cyprus has a name: It’s Turkey and the ruler, [President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan.”
The new president will also have to win over an increasingly bitter Turkish Cypriot side which has long pushed for reunification but seen those hopes dashed by reluctant Greek Cypriots.
The largest share of Turkish Cypriots voted for a nationalist and more hard-line party in this month’s parliamentary election — in what many on the Greek side see as a sign of frustration. Negotiations would still be led by the pro-reunification Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akıncı, but even he’s lost trust in Anastasiades and the process.
International pressure has also waned.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has made it clear he will only return to talks if there’s strong political intent to quickly finish a deal.
The Obama administration was also instrumental in pushing for a deal it saw as key to calming tensions in the East Mediterranean and between Turkey and the West, whereas the Trump administration has shown little interest in the region.
Turkey’s incentive to agree to the deal is weaker since the prospect of joining the EU faded last year.
“The realities on the ground have changed, and this does not only reflect the situation in Cyprus, where also the Turkish Cypriot elections showed a staunch support for right-wing parties, but also the fact that international and regional realities are now different,” said Harry Tzimitras, director of the PRIO Cyprus Centre, an independent research institute.