The collapse of talks between Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders late last year all but extinguished hopes that the island would ever be united.
Now it’s up to voters on both sides of the island to decide if there’s any chance of ending the 43-year standoff, or if the separation is permanent.
The Turkish Cypriot state in the north, recognized only by Turkey, holds a parliamentary election Sunday. The big issues are more domestic — like corruption, governance and economy — than reunification talks, where President Mustafa Akıncı takes the lead. But the outcome will determine whether any future government supports or thwarts Akıncı in negotiations.
The Turkish nationalist and conservative National Unity Party is expected to win the biggest share of votes. A poll late last year predicted it would win 34.2 percent, although the polling company was accused of corruption by the leader of the Democratic Party.
The government opposed last year’s reunification talks process and toughened Akıncı’s hand with measures such as the foreign minister’s decision to limit religious ceremonies at Orthodox churches in the north.
A U.N.-controlled buffer zone, separating the divided Cypriot capital Nicosia | Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP via Getty Images
A more significant gauge of the island’s future will be the January 28 presidential election in the Republic of Cyprus, the southern Greek side recognized worldwide except by Turkey. A first round will be followed by a runoff on February 4.
The nine candidates range from a pro-talks Communist Party member to incumbent center-right President Nicos Anastasiades, once seen as a reunification advocate but blamed by many for abruptly walking out on the deal in July, to a staunchly anti-solution conservative. Anastasiades is leading in the polls.
Dance partners
Any revival of talks will require clear will on both sides to reopen discussions and return to the agreement left on the table last year.
“It takes two to tango. Even if Mr. Akıncı’s hand becomes stronger, he’s not going to be the decisive actor here, because it depends on who will be the next Greek Cypriot leader and what kind of position he has after the elections in the south,” said Ahmet Sözen, a professor at the Eastern Mediterranean University in northern Cyprus, who took part in reunification talks in 2008.
Cyprus has been divided by a United Nations buffer zone since 1974. The U.N., which facilitated the peace talks, says it’s willing to restart negotiations after the elections — as long as it’s convinced that a deal is within reach.
A United Nations peacekeeper locks a gate leading to the U.N.-controlled buffer zone | Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP via Getty Images
That, however, also requires the two sides to mend a relationship battered by the election campaigns. Greek Cypriots blamed Turkey (which has troops stationed on the island) for refusing to immediately reduce its presence and influence in the north, while Turkish Cypriots pointed the finger at Anastasiades.
Even Akıncı, an independent elected on the promise of pursuing reunification, has lost confidence in the current negotiating format, in which nothing is agreed until everything is. He’s also lost credibility with Turkish Cypriots, said British Liberal Democrat Meral Hussein-Ece, who is of Turkish Cypriot decent.
“I think it will be very difficult for him to go back to the drawing board if President Anastasiades is reelected in February, to start again from scratch as if nothing has happened,” she said. “I sense the mood has changed amongst Turkish Cypriots.”
For Turkish Cypriot Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu of the National Unity Party, reunification talks aren’t an option unless northern Cyprus is treated in the same way as the south in all respects — beyond the U.N.-facilitated talks, where Akıncı and Anastasiades are equal community leaders.
“Any negotiating process whereby the Greek Cypriots will continue to be treated as the dominant side of Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriots will be treated as a mere community of Cyprus — we are not interested in it anymore,” Ertuğruloğlu told POLITICO. “We wasted 50 years doing that.”
A Greek flag in the foreground as the banner of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus flutters next to Turkey’s flag atop the Suleimiye mosque | Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP via Getty Images
However the Greek Cypriot chief negotiator, Andreas Mavroyiannis, believes negotiations will restart — and could be wrapped up quickly.
“There is some loss of trust, but at the same time I believe that we managed well in the negotiation on how to shape the future of Cyprus in the European Union,” he said. “The real problem we have and where we failed is how do we deal with the legacy of the past.”