Sun setting on chances of Cyprus deal

If they can’t seal a deal to reunify Cyprus in talks starting Wednesday, it could be a long time before they get another chance.

After more than two years of intense discussions between Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades to end nearly five decades of division, the two sides will meet once again in a Swiss mountaintop resort to seek a compromise on the most sensitive parts of a peace deal.

They’ll be joined by three countries charged with guaranteeing the island’s security and territory — Greece, Turkey and the U.K. — along with the United Nations and the European Union.

Failure to make a breakthrough over the next 10 days in Crans-Montana will likely erode what’s left of the trust between Akıncı and Anastasiades and the patience of the U.N., which facilitates the talks and polices the buffer zone across the island.

“My preference is to talk about this as the best chance, not to discuss whether it’s a last chance,” Espen Barth Eide, the U.N.’s special adviser on Cyprus, told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s a unique opportunity and it would be extremely sad if it was wasted.”

While Barth Eide refused to say whether failure in Crans-Montana would mark the end of the reunification efforts, sources close to the talks were skeptical about the prospects of returning for another round. Anastasiades called the meeting a “make-or-break” moment when he briefed fellow EU leaders in Brussels last week, according to a European Council official familiar with his remarks.

If the summit breaks off without progress on the final outstanding issues — especially on the Greek, Turkish and British powers to intervene and the presence of roughly 40,000 Turkish troops in the northern Turkish Cypriot area — the political focus will likely wane, both on the island and beyond.

On the island, in particular on the Greek Cypriot side, there is the sense that we can take things for granted, including the involvement of the international community and its willingness [to remain engaged]” — Harry Tzimitras, director of the PRIO Cyprus Centre

“On the island, in particular on the Greek Cypriot side, there is the sense that we can take things for granted, including the involvement of the international community and its willingness [to remain engaged],” said Harry Tzimitras, director of the PRIO Cyprus Centre, an independent research institute. “Things might change.”

Window closing

The window for a deal appears to be closing fast. Anastasiades will turn his attention to running for re-election in February and he already seems to be courting more right-wing, anti-reunification parties to make up for not having delivered his campaign promise of reunification.

The start of oil and gas exploration drilling in mid-July will likely fuel tensions between the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government, which says it has the right to carry on with business regardless of the talks, and Turkish Cypriots (backed by Ankara), who say they should benefit from the resources too.

Outside the island, the U.N.’s willingness to maintain a special Cyprus envoy and a peacekeeping mission that started in 1964 is in doubt, amid pressure to cut costs because of the loss of funding from the U.S. The U.N. Security Council extended the force’s deployment in January until July 31, but also called on the two sides, “as a matter of urgency,” to reach a deal.

“I think we should try to avoid a complete breakdown or complete collapse, because we don’t know what would follow,” said Armağan Candan, a Turkish Cypriot parliament member from the center-left, pro-reunification Republican Turkish Party, who is attending the Crans-Montana meeting.

In the longer term, analysts believe the chances of the self-declared Turkish Cypriot state one day becoming part of Turkey will grow stronger if a reunification deal is not reached soon. For Turkish Cypriots, that would mean the loss of access to Cypriot EU passports. For Greek Cypriots, it would create a land border with the only country that does not recognize their republic.

Turkish Cypriots don’t like the idea of becoming a Turkish province now, but that sentiment could change the longer they remain in limbo and reliant on Turkish trade and financing, said Ahmet Sözen, a political science and international relations professor at the Eastern Mediterranean University in northern Cyprus, who negotiated for the Turkish Cypriot side in 2008. This prospect should be enough to encourage reunification, especially for Greek Cypriots, but it’s not yet perceived as a real threat.

“They are living in the comfort of their own zone, which means they are not in touch with what’s happening in the next zone,” Sözen said. “As Turkish Cypriots, we will be losing in the short-run, and in the long-run Greek Cypriots will also lose from it.”

Long-running divide

Cyprus has been divided by the U.N.’s Green Line since 1974, following a Greek Cypriot attempt to unify with Greece and a Turkish invasion. Anastasiades’ government is recognized around the world except by Turkey, while Akıncı’s isn’t recognized anywhere except in Turkey.

Anastasiades and Akıncı are widely credited with making more progress toward reunification in 25 months than any negotiation process in the past — including a U.N.-led proposal that went to a failed referendum in 2004.

Still, optimism for a deal in Crans-Montana is much lower than it was going into a previous round of talks in Geneva in January.

The leaders’ first meeting with Turkey, Greece, Britain, the U.N. and the EU was billed as the big opportunity to agree on how to replace the security and guarantees system. The remaining pieces of a deal to create a federal government made up of two constituent states (similar to Belgium’s) were then expected to fall into place within weeks.

Instead, all sides came in swinging with opposing positions, triggering a quick breakdown. The talks faltered again in the following months over domestic disagreements, and Anastasiades’ harder line on the format of the Crans-Montana meeting fed concerns that he had already turned his attention to re-election.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, center, speaks as Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci, left, and Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades listen on in Geneva | Laurent Gillieron/AFP via Getty Images

After coming under pressure from U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, the leaders now hope to clinch a deal. The summit is loosely scheduled to last until July 7. Foreign ministers from the three guarantor countries, along with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and the European Commission’s First Vice President Frans Timmermans, are expected to stay most of this week.

The different sides are still “diametrically opposed” on the issue of security and guarantees, Barth Eide said. The smaller Turkish Cypriot population is reluctant to push Turkish troops out immediately after reunification, while the Greek Cypriot side argues that an EU member doesn’t need other states to intervene or guarantee its security.

Realistically, an agreement would require Turkish Cypriots to accept a speedy phase-out of Turkey’s power to intervene and the withdrawal of most Turkish troops from the start of reunification, sources close to the talks said. They would also likely have to agree give in on disputed land.

In return, Greek Cypriots would have to give in on a power-sharing system, including a rotating presidency shared between the two sides.

But the worry among mediators and observers is that the two sides are no closer now to handing over their bargaining chips than they were in Geneva.

“What I don’t see is the two very important guarantors — the motherlands — engaged,” Sözen said, adding that Ankara and Athens only talk to each other through the media.

“As a lifelong supporter of a federal solution in Cyprus I want to be optimistic and I would love that something comes out of Crans-Montana. But when I look at the realities on the ground, I don’t find too much optimism out there.”