Cyprus united … over Erdoğan

If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins a vote later this month to expand his powers, the European Union might get an unexpected windfall: a fortuitous last chance to seal a long-sought deal to reunify Cyprus.

While there is concern that Erdoğan’s sweeping constitutional reforms would push Turkey one step closer to authoritarianism, on the plus side — at least for Cyprus — it would stabilize and secure Erdoğan’s position at home, potentially making him more amenable to an agreement.

And that has both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, and the United Nations, watching anxiously for the results of the April 16 referendum.

“Paradoxically, if he wins the referendum — which is a blow to democracy in Turkey — it nevertheless may have a beneficial effect on the negotiations,” said Michael Carpenter, who worked as a Europe and Eurasia adviser to former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Carpenter, who is now senior director at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, said that a victory will give Erdoğan “a little more leeway to forge a settlement and to back a compromise solution.”

Reunification talks have stalled since a January summit failed to make headway on questions of security. An agreement would require Ankara to gradually withdraw most of its 30,000-plus troops from the northern Turkish Cypriot area and relinquish the power it holds, along with Greece and Britain, to guarantee the island’s security.

“Erdoğan is interested in a Cyprus solution as long as it delivers for him” — Harry Tzimitras, director of PRIO Cyprus Centre

Tensions on the island then flared in February over a Greek Cypriot rule to commemorate a 1950 vote to unify with Greece. The move stoked mistrust between the two sides and their leaders, Greek Cypriot Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot Mustafa Akıncı.

The talks are now set to resume on April 11, the U.N. announced Tuesday. There’s enough political understanding to wrap up a settlement within days or weeks — as long as there’s political will.

The question is whether Erdoğan will be in a giving mood after the vote.

A grafitti that reads “One Cyprus” in Nicosia | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

“It’s not an unreasonable position to take,” Nicholas Emiliou, Cyprus’ ambassador to the EU, said when asked about the view that Cyprus would have a better chance of reunifying if Erdoğan wins. “If he loses, Turkey will go into crisis, it would be a huge loss of face and pride. Therefore I don’t think Cyprus will be in his thoughts.”

Two weeks ahead of the referendum, polls put the “no” camp ahead, but only just.

The Cyprus pawn

Ankara has long said it supports the reunification of Cyprus. However, Erdoğan’s interest is driven by a much broader political strategy to win favor with the West and tap into new supplies of natural gas from the East Mediterranean.

The reunification after a 43-year division would end the standoff between Turkey and Anastasiades’ internationally-recognized Cypriot government, opening the way for more cooperation between Turkey and the EU, and consequently NATO and the EU. But the list of incentives for backing a deal has grown shorter as talks for Turkey to join the EU broke off last year. If his reforms don’t pass, Erdoğan could lash out and blame Europe, worsening already strained relations.

Furthermore, a loss — or even a tight win — would require Erdoğan to maintain cooperation with two parties that tend to be more nationalistic and less flexible on Cyprus, the main opposition group Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

The Taksim Square in Istanbul | Chris McGrath/Getty Images

“Erdoğan is interested in a Cyprus solution as long as it delivers for him, or doesn’t undermine him,” said Harry Tzimitras, director of the PRIO Cyprus Centre, an independent research institute. “So the incentives for him are withering away, and if he needs to count on cooperating with the CHP and MHP, it will be a problem.”

The worry is that time to strike a settlement is running short. Anastasiades faces reelection next February, and so far seems to be the only candidate in favor of reunification. Akıncı’s position could also weaken following parliamentary elections this year or next.

“These opportunities to resolve these sorts of protracted conflicts only come along every few decades, if at all” — Michael Carpenter, adviser to former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden

“We have a sense that Turkey can live with a settlement and they can live without a settlement, so how can we make Turkey be in favor of the settlement?” Andreas Mavroyiannis, the Greek Cypriot side’s chief negotiator, said at an Atlantic Council conference on Cyprus in March.

American muscle

This is where the U.S. could use its leverage, making sure outside powers don’t block a deal that’s agreed between the Cypriot leaders, Carpenter said. Biden was particularly interested in encouraging the island’s reunification and tried to lay the groundwork by talking to Erdoğan about its broader benefits.

The Trump administration appears willing to pick up the mantel. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took many by surprise when he made two of his first phone calls in office to Anastasiades and Akıncı at the end of February, reaffirming Washington’s support. He also planned to discuss Cyprus during his visit Turkey last week, according to a State Department preview of the trip. It’s an issue Tillerson was already acquainted with, having met Anastasiades last September as CEO of the energy giant ExxonMobil, which then won a license to explore for gas in Cyprus in December.

A sign in Greek and English warns of a nearby minefield in the buffer zone | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

But the question is how proactive the Trump administration will be, especially after making hundreds of layoffs at the State Department since Tillerson arrived.

“If you have a standoff approach from the new administration — essentially, ‘You call us when there’s a problem’ — that’s not going to work,” Carpenter said. “These opportunities to resolve these sorts of protracted conflicts only come along every few decades, if at all. So when they do come along you better damn well be invested in working with all of the interested parties to try and get a settlement.”