Cyprus reunification within reach

GENEVA — Cyprus is closer to ending the 43-year division between its Greek and Turkish populations than it has been in years.

As talks at United Nations headquarters in Geneva enter their final stretch, officials here express cautious optimism that a deal can be struck. On Thursday, officials from Turkey, Greece, and the U.K., plus U.N. Secretary General António Guterres and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, will fly in to the Swiss city to lend weight to the proceedings.

“This might actually happen,” a United Nations official said.

“I really think, without overdramatizing what is happening in Geneva, that it is the very last chance to see the island [reunified],” Juncker told reporters in Malta on Wednesday.

But to reach a reunification deal, many hurdles will still have to be cleared.

Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot leader and the country’s internationally recognized president, and Mustafa Akıncı, president of the self-declared Turkish Cypriot state, have been locked in talks for more than 18 months, negotiating the biggest outstanding issues to reunification.

“People are actually preparing for the fact that this might actually happen” — Espen Barth Eide, the U.N. secretary general’s special adviser on Cyprus

In Geneva, in recent days, they have even broached the one issue they had avoided so far: a system that would guarantee the unified country’s independence and security.

“The quality of that discussion was the best I’ve ever heard on that particular topic,” Espen Barth Eide, the U.N. secretary general’s special adviser on Cyprus, told reporters Thursday. “The reason is, people are actually preparing for the fact that this might actually happen, and that means you have to go from your traditional opening position to actually start looking for ways to solve it.”

Turkey, Greece and the U.K. are expected to send their foreign ministers to join Anastasiades and Akıncı on Thursday for the first-ever international conference to discuss security arrangements, and, crucially, the presence of some 30,000 Turkish troops stationed in the northern Turkish Cypriot area. Juncker and the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, will also attend as observers.

An exchange of secret maps

Before Turkish, Greek, British and EU officials arrived, Anastasiades and Akıncı took another first-ever step in the Cyprus negotiations — exchanging maps on Wednesday night showing where each side is willing to draw the boundary between the two constituent states that would form the reunified country.

Turkish Cypriots will have to give up some of the land they have lived on since the island was divided by a U.N. buffer zone in 1974, to reflect the Greek side’s bigger population and economy and return sites of significance.

But it’s an “emotionally charged” issue for both communities, Eide warned.

“For one side, a big part of the historical trauma is that people have been living for generations with the loss of the land and property where they used to live,” he said. “At the same time, today a number of people have been living their lives [there] normally for generations.”

The map exchange took place behind closed doors, with only Anastasiades, Akıncı, Eide and cartographers who could examine whether they fulfilled the criteria the two leaders had already laid down. The difference between the two was expected to be only around 1 percent of the land. After the presentations, the maps will go into a U.N. vault to keep them from being leaked.

The road ahead

The only other time Cypriots voted on reunification was in 2004 – on a plan drawn up and driven by the United Nations. That agreement failed to pass because the majority of Greek Cypriots rejected it, whereas more Turkish Cypriots voted in favor.

“We will go home with a sense that it is coming because we’ve created a framework and what we now have is some homework to do to be able to present this as a comprehensive package” — Espen Barth Eide

While the talks are progressing, there is no deadline for the international conference that starts Thursday, and no expectation that a final settlement deal will be wrapped up in Geneva this week.

At a minimum, the Cypriot sides should overcome their outstanding internal issues and reach an agreement with Turkey, Greece and Britain on a new framework for ensuring the country’s security, Eide said. That system would replace a 1960 treaty giving the three countries the power to intervene if Cyprus is invaded.

After that, Anastasiades and Akıncı should be able to iron out the finer details of the deal, draw up a constitution and schedule separate but simultaneous referendums on the two sides in the coming months.

“Don’t expect that we will be flying home from Geneva to Cyprus with a comprehensive settlement in our hands,” Eide said. “But we will go home with a sense that it is coming because we’ve created a framework and what we now have is some homework to do to be able to present this as a comprehensive package.”