Cyprus, the endgame

It’s make-or-break week for Greek and Turkish Cypriots, as their leaders enter the toughest stretch yet of negotiations to reunify the long-divided island. It’s a make-or-break week for the EU as well.

A successful outcome for them in Geneva — and the odds of that are about if not a bit better than even — won’t necessarily mean the end of negotiations over the reunification of Cyprus. But it would put the country on track toward holding separate but simultaneous referendums in the coming months, in turn paving the way for an end to a 43-year standoff and Turkish Cypriots’ inclusion in the European Union.

“It will show that the EU’s democratic framework is an effective mechanism that can lead to the resolution of such a historical conflict,” Christos Stylianides, the EU’s Cypriot commissioner for humanitarian aid, told POLITICO. “I am not sure that, if Cyprus was not a full EU member state, we would have made such a huge progress in the negotiations.”

Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot leader and the country’s internationally recognized president, and Mustafa Akıncı, president of the self-declared Turkish Cypriot state, meet in Geneva from Monday to Wednesday to work out the final sticking points after more than a year-and-a-half of talks mediated by the United Nations.

Officials from Turkey, Greece and the U.K. arrive on Thursday to discuss the future of their powers to guarantee Cyprus’ independence, territorial integrity and security and, crucially, the presence of roughly 30,000 Turkish troops in the northern Turkish Cypriot area.

Cyprus is divided by a U.N. buffer zone known as the Green Line, with Greeks in the south and Turks in the north.

But there are still a number of big — some worry insurmountable — hurdles to clear before the island reunifies. As the talks enter the final crunch, here’s what you should know about the Cyprus Problem.

The last sticking points

Anastasiades and Akıncı have already covered, and broadly agreed on, a long list of issues including how to bring the Turkish Cypriot side up to date with EU standards and laws, how to evaluate claims from people who lost their property when they were forced to flee to opposite sides of the country, and how to shape a federal government made up of two constituent states (similar to Belgium’s).

Now come the most personal and contentious issues — the bargaining chips Anastasiades and Akıncı have so far held tight. These are the questions they’ll tackle this week, nearly two months after talks in the Swiss mountain resort of Mont Pèlerin broke down.

One is whether the presidency will rotate between the two communities. The smaller Turkish Cypriot side is intent on it; Greek Cypriots counter that no other European democracy has such a system. There are about 800,000 people on the Greek side and about 300,000 on the Turkish side — which includes about 150,000 settlers from mainland Turkey that the Greek side considers illegal.

“Without a rotating presidency, there will be no referendum,” Akıncı told Al Jazeera Turk last month, adding that it will give the Turkish Cypriots a sense of equality between the two sides.

Anastasiades is expected to give in on that demand, in exchange for Akıncı’s concessions on the boundary delineating their states.

Cyprus is divided by a U.N. buffer zone known as the Green Line, with Greeks in the south and Turks in the north. The line will have to be adjusted in the Greek Cypriots’ favor to reflect their larger population and economy and return some coastline and other significant sites. The two leaders plan to exchange maps on Wednesday showing where each one would like to draw the line, after which they will tussle over the remaining land in dispute, pegged at around just 1 percent.

Then U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, center, with Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı, left, and Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades in November | Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

Once officials from Turkey, Greece and the U.K. arrive on Thursday — likely represented respectively by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and, possibly, Prime Minister Theresa May — the talks will turn to the powers the three were given in a 1960 treaty allowing them to intervene if Cyprus is invaded.

Greek Cypriots argue these international guarantees are outdated. But many Turkish Cypriots are nervous about kicking out Turkey, their only protector for the past four decades, and being swallowed up by the larger Greek side.

The compromise will likely call for a gradual withdrawal of security and guarantee powers, and Turkish troops, over several years. Anastasiades’ side has suggested one, two or three years, whereas Akıncı told Al Jazeera the situation should be revisited after 15 years. “Fifteen years will show us that this new system works,” he said.

Turkey looms large

Whatever Anastasiades and Akıncı agree, they’ll need to secure approval from Turkey, Greece and the U.K. The biggest worry, especially for Greek Cypriots, is whether Erdoğan will support the deal or derail it by refusing to relinquish his country’s guarantees or call troops home.

Turkey is the only country that officially recognizes Akıncı’s government, while everyone else recognizes Anastasiades’. Reunification would reopen a relationship between Ankara and Nicosia, and with it the potential for Turkey to import natural gas by pipeline from Cyprus and Israel, and for a closer relationship with Europe.

But as Turkey’s talks to join the EU ground to a near standstill last year, many worry Ankara now has less need to back the reunification. Michael Leigh, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, sees two remaining incentives, both rooted in Erdoğan’s need to loosen Russia’s influence in Turkey.

“He may wish to mend bridges with the U.S. and Europe so that he is not held too tightly in the grip of the Russian bear,” Leigh said. “Gas might be an additional incentive — giving a message to Moscow that despite plans to build Turkish Stream [a pipeline project from Russia] he has several alternative sources of supply: Azerbaijan, Iran, Qatar and potentially the Eastern Mediterranean.”

But even if Turkey agrees to call back its troops, it will likely want to have some way of intervening in Cyprus’ politics if there’s a problem, analysts at the Eurasia Group consultancy said in November. “While Turkey may be amenable to relinquishing its demand for some form of guarantee, Erdoğan faces pressure to avoid being seen as ‘losing Cyprus,’ particularly ahead of a referendum on constitutional reforms to the presidency in the spring.”

Russia lurks in the background

Moscow has largely kept quiet on the Cyprus talks so far, but amid the recent reports of its meddling in elections in the U.S., Germany and elsewhere, reunification-backers worry it could become a spoiler.

Russia tried to block the Cyprus solution in 2004, when it vetoed a resolution in the U.N. Security Council on changes that would take effect if the country voted to reunify. The other 14 members voted in favor.

Russia has close political, cultural and religious ties with Greek Cypriots, and has long been a big investor in Cyprus. The concern now is the Kremlin could use its links with small Greek nationalist political groups in southern Cyprus to disrupt the process once again, out of a desire to stoke populist anti-EU movements and divisions within the Union. That would also block the opening of another source for natural gas for two of Russia’s biggest customers, Turkey and Europe.

Europe needs the win

The EU has suffered blow after blow in the past couple of years, from economic meltdowns to terrorist attacks, from the refugee crisis to Brexit.

A vote to reunify an EU member that sits next door to Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa, after 43 years and one failed referendum in 2004, would be a win the whole Union could rally around. Brussels has been watching the talks closely, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will attend the Geneva meeting on Thursday.

Protesters and peace activists take part in a peace rally in the northern part of Nicosia in November 2016 | Birol Bebek/AFP via Getty Images

“The EU today is in a very bad situation,” said Neoklis Sylikiotis, an MEP for Cyprus’ biggest opposition group, the communist Progressive Party of Working People, which also supports reunification. “A Cyprus solution is also needed for the EU to have a success story.”

By settling the relationship between Cyprus and Turkey, the reunification would also clear the way for formal cooperation between NATO and the EU, which until now has been blocked because of the standoff, he noted.

More broadly, it would create “an island of stability” throughout the region, creating a model for how Christians and Muslims can live together peacefully, Stylianides said.

“A European stable island, in a region with multiple conflicts, will be — not only symbolically but substantively — a European example of coexistence and regional cooperation,” he said. “It will open new opportunities to greatly improve the energy security of Europe through the energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

The gamble of a referendum

As the U.K.’s vote for Brexit, America’s vote for Donald Trump and Colombia’s vote against a peace deal with FARC rebels showed last year, referendums can be hard to predict.

When Cypriots voted on a U.N.-designed settlement deal in 2004, 76 percent of Greeks rejected it while 65 percent of Turks voted in favor.

“On both sides, there’s a fear of change that is obviously cultivated by those who are against the negotiations” — anonymous European diplomat

Recent recent surveys on both sides of the Green Line suggest growing pessimism about reunification and the way Anastasiades and Akıncı are handling the talks.

On the Greek Cypriot side, 65 percent said late last month that they did not expect to see a solution, according to the Cyprus Mail. Among Turkish Cypriots, 89.4 percent said they were in favor of keeping some Turkish troops in the country after reunification and 46.7 percent opposed ceding land to the Greek side, the Diyalog Gazetesiı newspaper reported.

Things are different now compared to 2004 — the talks are led, and fully controlled, by two leaders who have long backed reunification. Anastasiades campaigned in favor of it in 2004, going against most of his political party and the then-president, while Akıncı beat his predecessor in the Turkish Cypriot presidential elections on a campaign to restart the talks.

But while most of the big political parties are in favor, there is also a rise of small nationalist, anti-settlement groups on both sides. There’s concern they could stoke enough fear to keep voters from supporting an end to four decades of division.

“It shows that the majority is still fearful of a solution,” a European diplomat following the talks said of the recent survey. “And on both sides, there’s a fear of change that is obviously cultivated by those who are against the negotiations.”