Cyprus talks not dead yet

Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are adamant that a deal to reunify the island isn’t dead, but the negotiations will likely be much tougher and slower from now on.

Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Mustafa Akıncı hit an impasse Monday night after two days of talks in Mont Pèlerin, Switzerland, and decided to return to Cyprus to “reflect on the way forward.”

Tensions appear to have flared after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras took a surprisingly hard line by laying down conditions for the next phase of talks with the three countries that are legally allowed to intervene if Cyprus is invaded — Greece, Turkey and the U.K.

But Greece’s intervention alone wouldn’t have been strong enough to derail the Mont Pèlerin meeting if there hadn’t been broader tensions underlying the fragile negotiations, analysts and diplomatic sources said.

If Anastasiades and Akıncı had really wanted to commit to an agreement, they would have extended their five-day session on the Swiss mountaintop earlier this month, instead of taking a week-long break and returning last Sunday, said Harry-Zachary Tzimitras, director of the independent and bi-communal PRIO Cyprus Centre.

“They had a good rapport until now, but this good rapport was tarnished in Mont Pèlerin,” Tzimitras said. “I’d like to believe that the process is not finished for good, but I think at the same time it’s going to be extremely difficult to overcome this and pretend it never happened. It’s not going to be easy.”

Anastasiades and Akıncı have been locked in negotiations facilitated by the United Nations for a year-and-a-half. Their aim is to reach an agreement to reunify Cyprus by the end of 2016 and put it to separate, but simultaneous, referendums in early 2017.

Athens has largely kept quiet on the Cyprus negotiations, except to say that it would support an agreement — until Anastasiades paid Tsipras a visit last week, between the two Mont Pèlerin meetings.

Cyprus has been divided by a U.N.-enforced buffer zone since 1974, with Greek Cypriots in the south and Turkish Cypriots in the north. The Greek Cypriot government is recognized around the world except in Turkey, while the Turkish Cypriot government isn’t recognized by anyone but Turkey.

Negotiating lines

Both sides were quick to reassert their positions following the breakdown of talks on Monday night while also emphasizing that they intend to proceed with negotiations — albeit without giving a timeframe.

There are three key issues standing in the way: the boundary between the two entities that would form a united country; the presence of more than 30,000 Turkish troops in northern Cyprus; and the roles of Turkey, Greece and the U.K. as security guarantors. The territorial line was up for discussion in Mont Pèlerin whereas the other two issues will have to be resolved in a meeting with the three guarantors and the U.N.

Akıncı is expected to cede ground on the boundary, to reflect the Greek side’s larger population and economy, and return sites of particular significance, in return for a gradual reduction in Turkey’s troop numbers and presence. But until Turkey’s role is decided, he wants to keep the decision on the territorial line open — as a final bargaining chip.

“Unfortunately, our counterparts have made efforts to finalize the chapter of territory,” Akıncı said in a statement Wednesday. “They aimed to strip us of our power to negotiate.”

The Greek Cypriot government’s spokesman, Nikos Christodoulides, said his side was ready to set a date for the meeting with Turkey, Greece, the U.K. and the U.N., but only if the Turkish Cypriots could first agree on the territorial line, the Cyprus News Agency reported Tuesday.

Anastasiades hit the phones Wednesday, calling European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, European Council President Donald Tusk, European Parliament President Martin Schulz, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Tsipras to reassure them that the talks are not over, reiterating that message in a televised interview that night.

Greece and Turkey loom

Athens has largely kept quiet on the Cyprus negotiations, except to say that it would support an agreement — until Anastasiades paid Tsipras a visit last week, between the two Mont Pèlerin meetings.

Tsipras laid down surprisingly big preconditions for the meeting with Turkey and the U.K., likely knowing they would be impossible for Akıncı, let alone Ankara, to swallow.

“Let me be clear, this matter can be settled at a multilateral framework only on the basis of an agreement to abolish the anachronistic system of guarantees and the full withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island,” Tsipras said, according to the Cyprus Mail.

His demands raised alarm bells on both sides of Cyprus and fueled tensions when Anastasiades and Akıncı returned to Switzerland a few days later. “But the position is not new,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at the Eurasia Group consultancy.

Tsipras’ aim was likely to put pressure on the talks and avoid entering a negotiating session with too many open issues, Tzimitras said. He’s expected to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in early December to lay the groundwork for the meeting with Turkey, the U.K. and U.N.

Greek and Turkish Cypriots worry the window of opportunity to reach a deal will close if the talks slide past the first few months of 2017.

Despite Greece’s hard line, Turkey is, and remains, the biggest wild card in the negotiations — especially as its relationship with the European Union deteriorates and as Erdoğan gears up to hold a vote on constitutional amendments that would let him stay in office until 2029.

The European Parliament’s vote on Thursday on whether to end Turkey’s EU membership talks could further stoke tensions and remove an incentive for Ankara to support the Cyprus reunification.

In the meantime, Erdoğan has been mending Turkey’s relationship with Russia and fostering ties with Asia by expressing an interest in joining the China- and Russia-led political, economic and military alliance known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said Michael Leigh, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

The less inclined Erdoğan is to appease the EU and U.S. on Cyprus, the tougher the negotiations will be, Leigh said. “Mr. Akıncı’s margin for maneuver is almost zero without the approval of Ankara.”

Greek and Turkish Cypriots worry the window of opportunity to reach a deal will close if the talks slide past the first few months of 2017. The changes of leadership at the U.N. and U.S., the start of Anastasiades’ campaign for re-election and the Greek Cypriot government’s award of licenses to explore for offshore natural gas (despite Turkish and Turkish Cypriot objections) could all kill the momentum toward a reunification deal.

“This was always pushing it,” Leigh said of the timeline. “I don’t think it’s spelling the end, I think these talks may effectively be put on the back-burner for some time.”