Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are in the final stretch of negotiations to reunite their divided island, after they agreed to meet in Switzerland next month to tackle the touchiest outstanding issues.
Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Mustafa Akıncı have been locked in intense talks over a solution for the Cyprus Problem for one-and-a-half years, meeting every week for the last few months. The United Nations facilitates the talks, but it’s the two leaders who set the tone, pace and direction.
The aim is to reach an agreement by the end of 2016. They would then schedule separate but simultaneous referendums in the first few months of 2017, and campaign while the new constitution is being drawn up.
It’s a tight timeframe for talks that still need to tackle two of the toughest issues on the table, but the buzz on the island, and in Brussels, is cautiously upbeat.
“Everything is now in place to achieve a win-win situation,” Christos Stylianides, the EU’s Cypriot commissioner for humanitarian aid, told POLITICO last week. He will accompany EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on a visit to Cyprus on Friday. “It is the first time that you can see on both sides, simultaneously, politicians who are for the compromise.”
A soldier stands guard next to Cypriot and Greek flags fluttering during a ceremony | Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP via Getty Images
Anastasiades and Akıncı agreed on Wednesday to resume their talks in Mont Pèlerin, Switzerland from November 7 to 11. The focus will be on where to draw a line marking the Turkish Cypriot community in the north and Greek Cypriot community in the south — which could result in homes and towns being reassigned, likely from the Turkish area to the Greek. Greek Cypriots want to shrink the Turkish community to reflect their larger population and economy, and take back areas that were traditionally Greek.
“The leaders expressed their hope that their meeting in Switzerland will pave the way for the last phase of the talks in line with their shared commitment to do their utmost in order to reach a settlement within 2016,” the U.N. mission to Cyprus said in a statement on Wednesday night.
That last phase will focus on the future roles of Cyprus’ three guarantor powers — Turkey, Greece and the U.K. — and in particular the presence of more than 30,000 Turkish troops in the north. It would likely be discussed in a meeting between the four governments, plus the U.N., outside of Cyprus.
“It’s uncertain whether Erdoğan will agree to pull out his troops. After decimating the army, he wants to prove that he is at least as tough as the military” — Michael Leigh
The decision to take the talks to Switzerland is encouraging, but the two remaining issues still risk derailing the entire resolution, analysts said.
The question of whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will accept an agreement that diminishes his country’s influence in Turkish Cyprus, and the size of its military presence there, still looms large. Greek Cypriots are still skeptical of Ankara’s support, especially since the failed military coup against Erdoğan in July and his purge of the alleged organizers and their supporters.
“It’s uncertain whether Erdoğan will agree to pull out his troops. After decimating the army, he wants to prove that he is at least as tough as the military,” said Michael Leigh, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels. Greek Cypriots “will never agree” to Turkish troops remaining after reunification, but a gradual withdrawal could work, he added.
That said, Erdoğan may see several up sides to supporting a solution: the possibility of reviving Turkey’s talks to join the EU with Cyprus’ support, mending bridges with the U.S. and Europe to balance Russia’s influence, and importing natural gas along a pipeline from the East Mediterranean through Cyprus to diversify away from Russian supplies, Leigh said.
“But is this enough? We’ll only know when we reach the moment of truth when and if everything is solved except security and guarantees.”
Now or never
Cyprus has been divided by a U.N.-enforced no-go zone known as the Green Line since Turkey invaded in 1974, after Greek Cypriots carried out a military coup d’état aimed at unifying with Greece. Anastasiades’ Greek Cypriot government is recognized around the world except in Turkey, whereas Akıncı’s self-declared Turkish Cypriot state is not recognized by anyone but Turkey.
Cypriots voted on reunification once before, in 2004, under a deal largely led by the U.N. But Greek Cypriots voted against it after the then-president urged them to reject it, whereas most Turkish Cypriots voted in favor.
This time around, both leaders have long supported reunification. Anastasiades went against most of his political party to vote in favor of the 2004 deal. Akıncı based his presidential campaign on the promise to relaunch talks and pulled off a surprise win against the right-wing nationalist incumbent in April 2015.
Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades (R) and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci (L) shake hands during a social function in Nicosia’s U.N.-patrolled buffer zone on June 2, 2016 | Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP/ via Getty Images
Since then, they have reached a broad agreement on most issues, including how to compensate Cypriots who lost property when they were forced to opposite sides of the island 42 years go, how to bring the Turkish side up-to-date with EU laws, and what their bi-zonal, bi-communal federation’s government would look like (although they have not yet agreed on whether the presidency will rotate between them, as the Turkish Cypriots want).
But many worry the window of opportunity will close if Anastasiades and Akıncı can’t hold a vote by early 2017.
“We should work harder because new dynamic might emerge in 2017 which may jeopardize the settlement efforts,” Akıncı said in July. Those include the beginning of Anastasiades’ campaign for reelection in 2018, drilling for natural gas off the southern coast in early 2017 even though Turkish Cypriots argue it shouldn’t start until there’s a resolution, and the change of leadership in the U.S. and U.N., he said.
Meanwhile, pressure is building from the outside too, especially in Brussels, where leaders are desperate for a success story after the migration crisis, Brexit, the war in Syria, terrorism attacks and, most recently, the Belgian Walloon region’s attempt to block an EU trade deal with Canada. Mogherini’s visit on Friday to meet Anastasiades, Akıncı and Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides is aimed at showing EU support.
“Cyprus will become a European island of stability at the center of this very volatile region,” Stylianides said. “It can become a model of coexistence between Christians and Muslims, and you can understand the significance of this in a period when Daesh [the Islamic State] tries to divide people based on religions and cultures.”
This article has been updated to correct a quote from Michael Leigh.