NICOSIA, Cyprus — The fate of Cyprus rests in the hands of two men. Both were born in the southern city of Limassol. Both were in their late 20s when the island was rent in two in 1974 between Greeks and Turks.
One is Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, whose government is recognized worldwide except in Turkey. The other is Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akıncı, whose government isn’t recognized by anyone but Turkey.
They’re members of the last generation that remembers a mixed country in which Greeks spoke Turkish and Turks spoke Greek, and they’ve been locked in talks over how to resolve the ‘Cyprus Problem’ for nearly a year. A reunification plan could be put to a referendum as early as this September.
“Most people recognize this is the best chance Cyprus has had to reach a peace agreement in a very long time,” said Aleem Siddique, spokesman for the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus. “It’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time.”
That’s because what’s propelling this effort at reunification is less idealism and more a clear-eyed assessment of interests. The Greeks are motivated by the catastrophic fallout from the economic crisis, while the Turks are dismayed at being excluded from the EU. And both sides hope to profit from new gas discoveries.
The challenges are enormous — largely caused by the pain and emotion born of four decades of separation. The consequences can be seen along the Green Line, the scraggly no-man’s land overrun with weeds and debris separating Greeks in the south from Turks in the north.
Clik here to view.
The green in the map represents the United Nations Buffer Zone — also known as the Green Line —
a 180-kilometer demilitarized area established in 1974 following the Turkish invasion of Cyprus
On the south side, stacks of old oil barrels painted in Greece’s signature blue and white fill gaps along the line. People crossing into the north are welcomed with an in-your-face yellow and red sign proclaiming: “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Forever.”
“This is not a boundary, it’s a knife in the heart. It creates a psychological division, it creates prejudice,” said Titina Loizidou, a member of Nicosia’s Tourism Board, on the Greek side. “It’s very frustrating as a Cypriot to be told this is a no-man’s land.”
That division could be erased within the year, replaced by a single government overseeing two communities, each free to stay in their zones or cross without needing a passport.
However, before a referendum can even be contemplated, the talks have to grapple with deep-rooted differences over what a united Cyprus would look like, how to quell the persistent distrust between the two communities and — above all — what happens to Turkey’s presence in the north (in the form of more than 30,000 troops and heavy political influence).
The feeling in Cyprus is that it’s now or never. If Anastasiades and Akıncı can’t broker a remarriage, permanent divorce might lie ahead.
“In order to solve this problem, we don’t need years, we need months,” Akıncı told POLITICO. “Definitely, if we continue — and there is an ‘if’ here — with this determination, with this pace, with this political will, within months we can conclude an agreement.”
Déjà vu all over again
It’s not the first time the two sides have been close to a resolution.
Anastasiades supported reunification in 2004, during a referendum where most of his political party, the then-president and 76 percent of Greeks voted against.
Akıncı campaigned last year on a promise to pursue a resolution. He won in an upset against incumbent Derviş Eroğlu, in a sign that Turkish Cypriots still wanted reunification after voting 65 percent in favor of it in 2004.
His election in April 2015 kick-started a new and different round of negotiations, without the outside influence that dominated the 2004 talks. As then, the U.N. is the official mediator, but it’s the two leaders who set the tone, pace and direction.
“It will be the first time the Cypriots take control of their own destiny, their own solution to the matter,” Ioannis Kasoulides, Cyprus’ foreign minister, told POLITICO. “The fact that the spirit is for each side to understand and address the concerns of the other side is the only way that this is going to be solved.”
The list of contentious issues is long.
Clik here to view.
A United Nations peacekeeper patrols the buffer zone in Nicosia, Cyprus | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Getty Images
Should the president’s post rotate between the two sides? The Turks say ‘yes,’ the Greeks ‘no.’ Where will one community end and the other begin? The Greeks want to cut the Turkish area from 37 percent of the island to less than the 28.5 percent proposed in 2004, to reflect its share of the population. The Turks want more.
The worry among proponents of reunification on both sides is that the benefits of a solution are far more clear-cut for the Turks than the Greeks.
“For the Turkish Cypriots, it’s a matter of survival, because they’re not recognized anywhere, they can’t trade with anyone except Turkey. It’s about improving their current conditions,” said Andromachi Sophocleous from the Cypriot Puzzle, a non-partisan initiative of Greeks and Turks that aims to inform people about the Cypriot division and negotiations.
Greek Cypriots got a wake-up call during the country’s financial crisis in 2012-2013, she said. “They’ve realized that we have to find a solution now, because the country is in a financial mess.” Cyprus has gradually recovered from the crisis, exiting its three-year bailout program in March, but its economy remains fragile and the government still has difficult reforms to implement.
Across the Green Line
The Green Line has been in place since Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974, after Greek Cypriots carried out a military coup d’état aimed at unifying with Greece.
While time has since stood still in this corridor, the two sides have developed in starkly different ways. The south of Nicosia has grown into a European city, dotted with trendy wine bars, Starbucks and international finance and energy companies. The north, instead, struggles to survive on Turkish financing. Outside Nicosia, the Turkish north resembles a third-world country.
The so-called Annan Plan of 2004, named after former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan who put the deal together, was rushed to the polls six days before Cyprus joined the European Union. While Brussels had promised to accept Cyprus regardless of the division, many Cypriots say they felt pushed to resolve the island’s separation before joining the club.
The result was a divisive failure.
Then-President Tassos Papadopoulos negotiated the plan but turned against it days before the vote, on the grounds that it lacked guarantees for the withdrawal of Turkish troops. He urged his people to reject it, saying it wasn’t the right peace deal.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Turkish Cypriots who voted for the plan now feel they were shunned by their Greek countrymen as well as the EU they’d hoped to join.
“We said ‘yes,’ but we’re still out because of the ‘no’ vote of another community,” Akıncı said.
While the Turkish and Greek halves have in many ways grown further apart since 2004, they have also had time to explore the other side, after the Green Line was opened in 2003. That means anyone can now cross over, as long as they show ID.
The poorer Turks tend to cross more. They spent €16 million in southern Cyprus in 2014, while Greeks spent €11.6 million in the north, according to the card processing company JCC Payment Systems.
But there are still many, especially Greeks — even in Nicosia, with a crossing point in the city center — who have never ventured over. The very idea of showing a passport or ID to enter a part of their own country, some say, is too upsetting.
Economic prize
It’s the economic impetus of reunification that has helped to build the current momentum for a deal.
Reunification could add around €12,000 to per capita incomes and expand the economy by €20 billion over 20 years, the PRIO Cyprus Centre reported in May 2014. That would almost double the Greek Cypriot government-controlled area’s GDP of $23.23 billion in 2014. Northern Cyprus’ GDP is estimated to be $4.27 billion.
The benefits range from resurrecting the ghost town of Varosha in the north, closed off by the Turkish military since 1974, to its former glory as one of Europe’s most exclusive seaside resorts, to reopening the Turkish part’s ports and airports, currently boycotted by the Greek Cypriot government and many of its economic partners, to selling the country’s newly discovered wealth of offshore natural gas.
“We are really looking desperately for a solution,” said Mehmet Harmancı, mayor of the Turkish side of Nicosia. “After the solution we would be able to compete with other European towns and cities in terms of infrastructure, in terms of quality of people’s lives, and of course for the flow of tourists.”
The country’s first gas discovery in late 2011, the Aphrodite field, has further fueled hope for a solution. It’s not a huge gas deposit, with 127 billion cubic meters, but it’s enough to rake in new export revenues, and is expected to be the first of more.
Oil and gas companies and the government have looked at a variety of options for selling the gas since 2011, including combining it with Israel’s offshore gas and exporting it by ship, from a gas liquefaction plant, or by pipeline to Turkey, Egypt, Jordan or Lebanon. Turkey, however, remains out of the question for now, unless Cyprus reunifies and normalizes its relationship with Ankara.
Clik here to view.
Time stands still in the departure lounge at the abandoned Nicosia International Airport in the buffer zone | Neil Hall/Reuters
Until then, the gas could also drive tensions between the Cypriot government, which wants to plough ahead with exploration for more resources, and Turkey and Turkish Cypriots, who say the gas belongs to the entire country. Turkey sent ships to Cypriot waters in October 2014 to protest the exploration work, prompting Anastasiades to walk away from settlement talks.
Anastasiades’ government launched a new bidding round for exploration rights in late March. While it’s likely to be many months at least before those permits lead to drilling, Akıncı is quick to warn that drilling before reunification would put the talks in jeopardy.
Akıncı, as well as many in the industry, argue the pipeline to Turkey is the cheapest and quickest option for selling the gas. Nicosia is keeping its options open, and in the meantime is courting gas-hungry Egypt, although that market’s potential for Cyprus is less clear since the discovery of the huge Zohr gas field last year in Egyptian waters.
Turkish wild card
While Anastasiades and Akıncı negotiate head-to-head, another presence looms large; Ankara and its strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Greek Cypriots are adamant that Turkey withdraw all of its troops and recognize the Cypriot government as the country’s legitimate government and member of the EU that Ankara also says it wants to join.
“We have not yet seen a real signal from the decision-makers in Turkey that it will withdraw its guarantee and troops,” said Kornelios Korneliou, Cyprus’ ambassador to the EU. “Ankara has the key to this.”
As the smaller of the two groups, Turkish Cypriots instead worry about being swallowed up by the Greeks. They accept the need to reduce Turkey’s presence, but are reluctant to sever the tie entirely.
“Security, in the eyes, in the minds, of the Turkish Cypriots is connected with the continuation of Turkish guarantees,” Akıncı said. “The crux of the matter here is: How do we [ensure] this security concern of the Turkish Cypriots is not perceived as a threat by the Greek Cypriot population?”
He said he would be willing to cut the number of Turkish troops down to 650, as called for in Cyprus’ 1960 constitution (which also provided for 950 from Greece).
Clik here to view.
A Greek Cypriot boy in front of graffiti pushing for reunification in 2004 | John Kolesidis/Reuters
Of course, if Cyprus does reach a resolution, its gas could also create new grounds for cooperation with Turkey. Turkey’s demand for gas is growing, and the country’s relationship with one of its primary suppliers — Russia — is souring. Even gas imports from Israel would have to cross Cypriot waters to get to Turkey, which won’t happen unless Cyprus gets behind the project. A pipeline to Turkey would generate €1.3 billion in fresh investment in Cyprus, according to the PRIO research.
President Erdoğan has hinted that he would like the Cyprus Problem to be put to rest. The standoff with Nicosia impedes the country from entering full-fledged negotiations to join the EU, or at least form a special bond with the bloc. One problem for Erdoğan is that Turkish settlers now make up roughly half the population in the north, many of them born in Cyprus. The Greek side’s demand to repatriate settlers may be opposed by Ankara.
Home sweet home
Visions of lucrative gas deals haven’t drained the emotions from the dispute.
At the heart of the negotiations is the loss of property, and the question of how to compensate people who were forced out of their homes 42 years ago. It gets even trickier when considering the interests of those who now occupy those buildings and plots.
It’s going be an expensive problem to resolve, and a highly sensitive one. Early estimates put the total cost of reunification at €20-25 billion, much of it for property.
Greek Cypriots feel that Turkey has denied their rights to use their own property — a position that Loizidou, the Nicosia tourist guide, confirmed in the European Court of Human Rights.
The European Court of Human Rights in 2014 ordered Turkey to pay €90 million for human rights violations related to the Cypriot occupation.
Loizidou is the only person on the island that Turkey has ever compensated for the loss, as well as moral damage, of property to which she still has a title — $1.2 million (including interest) in 2003. The Strasbourg-based court in 2014 also ordered Turkey to pay €90 million for other human rights violations related to the Cypriot occupation, but Ankara has refused to pay.
Anastasiades and Akıncı agree that property claims will be dealt with case-by-case, through a committee made up of an equal number of Greeks and Turks, and one foreigner.
But they’re not entirely in sync on the issue. Many Greeks — who lost the majority of the property at issue — say they want it back. Turks say they’ll likely stay put in the north.
“For the Turkish Cypriots, the main psychological issue will be security, they would prefer to be secure than to go and live over there,” Harmancı said.
“Imagine people who are 25, 30 or 40 years old — they have created their lives in the north or south. I don’t expect people would leave their streets, leave their communities, to live in a place where they feel like they’re in England, or another foreign country.”